via AFL Footy Forums - Talking Football - Australian Rules Football Forum by TalkingFootball on 28/09/10
Here is a very interesting comment I was reading online ... thought it was a very worthwhile post and one that deserves a thread all of its own. Poster highlights a very practical way to look at the trade period. Obviously the guidelines(examples) given may marginally move from year to year, if the draft was shallower or deeper, however the concept sounds very sound. Basically trade week isn't about trading players, it's about trading AFL games. Here's what I mean:
Taz has 2 or 3 good years left: he's worth 60 AFL games
Schammer has 5 years left, but will struggle to make a best 22: he's worth say 20 AFL games
Fraser has 2 years left & won't be best 22: he's worth 0 AFL games You see how it works.
Keep dreaming about young, solid defenders with 5+ good years left, but the only way we'll get a trade like that is if they are rubbish. Since there's no like for like player, go for a draft pick. Now picks are also equal to games too:
Round one, gets you a 150 game player
Round two, a bit more iffy - you probably only average out to 100 games
Round three and above = 50 games So likely only get a round 3 pick for Taz (maybe round 2 because the compromised draft makes them worth less)
Taz has 2 or 3 good years left: he's worth 60 AFL games
Schammer has 5 years left, but will struggle to make a best 22: he's worth say 20 AFL games
Fraser has 2 years left & won't be best 22: he's worth 0 AFL games You see how it works.
Keep dreaming about young, solid defenders with 5+ good years left, but the only way we'll get a trade like that is if they are rubbish. Since there's no like for like player, go for a draft pick. Now picks are also equal to games too:
Round one, gets you a 150 game player
Round two, a bit more iffy - you probably only average out to 100 games
Round three and above = 50 games So likely only get a round 3 pick for Taz (maybe round 2 because the compromised draft makes them worth less)
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